Wednesday, November 16, 2005

In the long run...

Pessimism: "A tendency to stress the negative or unfavorable or to take the gloomiest possible view"

Over time, a pessimist will find that quite a lot that could've gone horribly bad hasnt actually gone down that path. In the long run, pessimism should die down. Similar argument would hold for optimism as well.

Or as Keynes would put it: In the long run, pessimism & optimism are also dead.

8 Value-adds:

Blogger Nirav said...

I guess there should be an assumption put in if the long run theory has to hold: "All pessimists/optimists are rational human beings"
and this is not true of even all human beings, let alone pessimists or optimists

November 17, 2005 7:13 AM  
Blogger Docs Dope said...

madraaaaaaaaaaseeeeeeeeeeeeeee

November 17, 2005 11:53 AM  
Blogger eV said...

Nirav, I assumed rationality and the willingness to learn from the past. Btw, is the latter a subset of the former?

Doc, Thanks! But why exactly?

November 17, 2005 12:17 PM  
Anonymous Anupadmaja said...

"Is willingness a subset of rationality"

Not clear why you think so.

Rationality aids in deciding whether to be willing or not. One maybe rational in some situation but not really willing. Infact rationality at times makes one to not be willing.

November 19, 2005 6:14 AM  
Anonymous Anupadmaja said...

Adding to my earlier comment, irrational and willing/not willing is a common combination too.

November 19, 2005 6:15 AM  
Blogger eV said...

Anu,

Rationality aids in deciding whether to be willing or not.

Does that mean sometimes a rational person decides (on a rational basis) not to learn from history? I'm not sure if this is possible. Any examples?

November 19, 2005 1:46 PM  
Anonymous Anupadmaja said...

Example: Cases where greed/fear/.../liking overtakes. A rational person knowing its wrong would still do it/not do it. Eg. You see somebody getting killed. There are rational people (dunno if i am one) who would be willing to not try and help the person out in fear of problems resulting from it. At this stage the person is rational enough to know that avoiding this confrontation is wrong. But is still not willing to do the right thing. The learning from the past here is a worse situation more in support of my comment. Anyway, stories that you hear/heard are also part of learning from the past right?

In case you had coomented exclusively in the context of your main topic, then i need to think about my comment.

November 21, 2005 11:20 AM  
Blogger eV said...

Anu,
At this stage the person is rational enough to know that avoiding this confrontation is wrong. But is still not willing to do the right thing.
I think your argument is that in some cases it is rational to be immoral based on lessons from the past. I'm not sure if your comment addressed the issue I was raising in my previous comment.

November 22, 2005 4:23 PM  

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